By: Bill Doolittle and Russ Brown
Bill – Hey, Russ. It’s coming up September and I gotta catch up with you on football. I’ve been reading your UofL stories, and between your polished lines I think you have a pretty good notion of what’s going with the Cardinals. Last year you were right on it with your pre-season predictions. I mean RIGHT on it. I’d like to hear what your crystal ball says for 2025.
Then I have some secret numbers for you.
Russ – Always glad to help, and thanks for pointing out that I nailed it last season. Now the pressure is on to repeat my success. My prediction this time looks a lot like last season when it comes to the ACC because once again it looks like our 170 media friends to vote in the preseason ACC poll haven’t done their homework. As a reminder, Louisville was picked eighth and instead posted a 7-1 record and played in its first conference football championship game. My analysis, based on the Cards’ schedule, was that anything less than eight wins would be a disappointment, and they had a legitimate shot at 10. They finished 10-4.
The non-conference schedule this time around is somewhat tougher, with road trips to Notre Dame and Kentucky, but the ACC slate is once more very user-friendly. Here’s why: Based on the preseason poll, UofL plays only three of the top eight teams -- Clemson (2), Miami (3) and SMU (7) -- and the Cards get Miami and SMU at home. Furthermore, in addition to No. 9 Georgia Tech, they play four of the bottom five teams -- Pitt (13), BC (14), Virginia (16) and Stanford (17).
I don’t expect the Cards to get to the title game again, but I do think they will finish just out of the running and their overall regular season record will be no worse than 8-4 if they can run the table in the games in which they’ll be a solid favorite and beat either SMU or Miami in L&N Stadium. I have their losses coming against Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami or SMU and UK.
There you have it Bill. We’ll see if my 2023 showing was a fluke or not.
Bill – OK, I got it. Split with Southern Methodist and Mami at home, and road losses to Clemson, Notre Dame and Kentucky. Win all the rest. 8-4.
I did notice you did not mention Jacksonville State, which had a good team last year, won their league and bowl game. I imagine the Gamecocks (of Alabama), who recruit in the Louisville area, will be all out to upset Louisville in L&N Stadium on September 7.
Russ – Won’t happen.
Bill – If you say so.
Russ – Incidentally, The Athletic included Louisville as one of six preseason unranked teams to watch for in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff race, the others being Boise State, Iowa State, Memphis, UCF and Virginia Tech.
Bruce Feldman, The Athletic’s National College Football Insider, wrote that at least one unranked team is guaranteed to make the playoff, and he thinks two sleeper candidates will make it.
Last year, Missouri finished No. 8 in both polls after not getting a single vote in the preseason AP poll. The year before that, it was TCU that got shut out in the preseason poll and made it to the national title game. The year before that, Baylor finished No. 5, rising from the unranked. So history suggests there are probably six unranked teams with a legitimate chance to crack the playoff.
Bill – Sounds so authoritative. But I don’t do it that way, with all those facts and stuff. To tell the truth I’d rather hear an Arkansas Razorback fan yell, “Wooo Pig Sooie” than listen to the pablum of pre-season football interviews. I get a line on college football teams the same way I get a line on thoroughbred racehorses. I like to see the athletes with my own eyes. So I’ve swung by open practice to see if anything, or anybody, stands out. Like hoping to catch a sharp workout before a big race. And it’s interesting, because I think I’ve got Louisville’s magic numbers pegged: 9-21-1.
That’s not a win-loss prediction of 9 wins, 21 losses, 1 tie. It’s the secret combination to unlock the ACC vault. If Louisville is going to vault past Florida State, or Clemson, or both, the star power numbers that could do it night be 9-21-1. Jersey numbers 9-21-1, of course.
Russ – Okay, you have prompted my curiosity, and I know who wears those numbers, so I am eager to hear your explanation. That is, if you have one. I have to admit those are very good choices, except that you left out UofL’s best player on either side of the ball in defensive lineman Ashton Gillotte, a pre-season first team All-American who is likely to be a high first-round NFL draft choice next spring. Or maybe you intend No. 9 to do double duty since both he and Shough use that number.
Bill – Well, I couldn’t get a look at any defensive standouts. The first team defense practices on a field way across the way. But then, I don’t really know anything about football. The only defensive players I might be able to pick out would be “Mean Joe” Green or “Too Tall” Jones. I might hear “Night Train” Lane coming. But by then it would be too late.
Russ – One observation about Shough before I turn it over to you. Coaches at multiple schools have gushed about quarterback Shough’s talent. The challenge has been keeping him healthy for a full season. But if that happens, with Brohm promising a more wide open offense, the Cards will be super-dangerous. Shough, who turns 25 this month, has never been able to play more than seven games in a season over the past five years during stops at Oregon and Texas Tech.
Bill – The reason I like numbers rather than names is that way up in the stands the best way to spot a player is by jersey number. Especially my guys – all three of whom are transfers.
No. 9 is quarterback Tyler Shough, as you suspected. In your Voice story last month I liked how Brohm said of Shough, “the ball jumps out of his hand.” Meaning he spots his target and gets rid of the ball quickly. Pondering gives the defense time to stop you. But a quick decision can be decisive when a quarterback is marching a team down the field.
No. 21 is Don Cheney, Jr. a junior transfer running back from Miami who looks like he has the size and power of a top college running back. He really looks the part. And No. 1 is the wide receiver Ja’Cory Brooks, coming in from Alabama as a senior. Brooks could be the elite receiver Louisville hasn’t had in seasons. A Big Play guy.
Russ – So what, exactly, did you see?
Bill – Two years ago Brooks grabbed eight touchdowns, which led Alabama, and was tied for third in the SEC. Last season he got hurt against LSU. But what I like best isn’t Brooks’ back story, it’s the play I saw him make in practice. Brooks, who is 6-foot-3, broke open deep and Shough aired the ball out to him maybe 40 yards downfield. It looked like Brooks expected the ball over his left shoulder, but when he turned it was over his right -- and he just pirouetted in air and grabbed it high. It was something. A deep downfield weapon who can probably also sky for the ball in the end zone.
If you wish to add a couple numbers from the offensive line, two players who are easy to spot are 6-7 guard Monroe Mills, No. 72, and 6-9 tackle Jonathan Mendoza, No. 76. The latter is a transfer from Yale. How about that, Russ? An all-conference Ivy League lineman.
Russ – While we’re on the subject of football, I want to extend my condolences to the family and friends of former UofL head coach Steve Kragthorpe, 59, who died last month after a long battle with Parkinson’s disease. Kragthorpe was hired from Tulsa by then-athletic director Tom Jurich, who had the coach tabbed as a rising star. He was 15-21 with the Cards (2007-09). After leaving UofL Kragthorpe was hired as offensive coordinator at LSU, but when he was diagnosed with Parkinson’s, he moved into a role as analyst.
Bill – I remember Steve Kragthorpe as a good guy as well as a promising coach. He spoke at the Wellspring Derby Preview Party when he arrived, and brought along senior quarterback Brian Brohm. Very well received. But things went bad with some of his players off-field and the team didn’t hit its potential. Too bad.
Russ – Congratulations are in order for former University of Kentucky track and field stars Masai Russell, Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone and Alexis Holmes for their outstanding performances in the Paris Olympics.
Russell, who competed at UK from 2018 to 2023, prevailed in the women’s 100-meter hurdles in her first Olympics. She won in 12.33 seconds in a tight finish ahead of France’s Cyrena Samba-Mayela (12.34) and defending champion Jasmine Camacho-Quinn of Puerto Rico.
McLaughlin-Levrone added to her career Olympic medal haul while Holmes earned her first. The pair were key parts of the United States’ gold medal-winning 4x100 squad that set an American Olympic record (3:15.27) in dominant fashion. The Netherlands took silver and Great Britain won bronze. McLaughlin-Levrone ran the second leg and provided a huge lead that proved insurmountable, and Holmes finished off the victory as the anchor. McLaughlin-Levrone’s also got the gold in the 400-meter hurdles.
And let’s not forget former duPont Manual High School and Notre Dame standout Yared Nuguse, who won the bronze medal in the 1,500-meter run.
Bill – I’ll tell you what I liked in the Paris Olympics was … Paris! The settings were terrific. Like fencing in the glass-roofed Grand Palais. And the way they set up a beach volleyball court at the foot of the Eiffel Tower.
Now I see the University of Louisville basketball women are about to make their own Tour-de-France, so to speak.
Russ – That’s right. The women’s basketball team will have an international trip to tip off the season when they take part in the 2024 Aflac Oui-Play Event in Paris. The Cardinals will square off against UCLA for the first time on Nov. 4 at the Adidas Arena, in Paris, as part of a doubleheader with Southern Cal and Ole Miss.
Coach Jeff Walz promises the game with UCLA will be a battle, but the trip to Paris is more important, “as an enriching experience that allows our players and fans to immerse themselves in a unique environment.”
It’s the second straight season the Cards will play on an international stage. Prior to the 2023-24 season, Louisville represented the United States in the 2023 GLOBL JAM tournament in Toronto and came home with the gold medal.
This year after Paris, Louisville squares off with Oklahoma in the SEC/ACC Challenge on December 4 before heading to Brooklyn to face Connecticut on December 7 in the Women’s Champions Classic at the Barclays Center. They also face Kentucky in Lexington for the annual Battle for the Bluegrass during their non-conference schedule. After landing a highly-rated recruiting crop, Walz is expecting one of his best teams this season.
Bill – I think better than the basketball is it’s great for student players to see the world. I mean Paris!
And for fans, too. The Atlantic Coast Conference certainly broadened its horizons with the addition of Stanford and California. Louisville football plays at Stanford, Nov. 16, and a trip to Palo Alto could include a few days in San Francisco. Or hop over the Coastal Range to Monterrey, Carmel and Big Sur. Movie fans can cruise Santa Cruz, where American Graffiti was filmed. Or find John Steinbeck’s Cannery Row. In the movie, Nick Nolte is at his bumbling romantic best when he tells Debra Winger, “The only thing we have in common is we’re both wrong for each other.”
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